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Post by haus on Sept 11, 2016 16:37:06 GMT -8
bless you habi for that sleek rundown of the votes. I was getting lost in the memes. I accuse str1fe. Mainly because he wants to kill someone for having an uappealing face and I won't stand for it
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pinecone
dumb cones who throw scumgames
Posts: 4,383
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Post by pinecone on Sept 11, 2016 16:55:57 GMT -8
Vote Str1fe You don't like my face? You can eat a noose.
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pinecone
dumb cones who throw scumgames
Posts: 4,383
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Post by pinecone on Sept 11, 2016 16:56:23 GMT -8
sorry Unvote Pawn Vote Str1fe
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pinecone
dumb cones who throw scumgames
Posts: 4,383
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Post by pinecone on Sept 11, 2016 16:58:37 GMT -8
(but seriously are we just yolo lynching here? I would prefer we have some reasoning for lynching somebody.)
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Post by str1fe on Sept 11, 2016 17:05:37 GMT -8
Town and mafia would have no incentive to lynch, b/c town doesn't have info and mafia doesn't want to give themselves away, but there's an executioner who will definitely kill a townsperson if no one else lynches. So town should take the (5/16?) chance that they'll kill someone they want dead.
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Post by str1fe on Sept 11, 2016 17:07:01 GMT -8
I think that means that optimal town strategy is to lynch a random person - have everyone vote for themselves and then kill anyone who changes their vote on day 2?
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pinecone
dumb cones who throw scumgames
Posts: 4,383
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Post by pinecone on Sept 11, 2016 17:08:53 GMT -8
I think that means that optimal town strategy is to lynch a random person - have everyone vote for themselves and then kill anyone who changes their vote on day 2? I think only mafia try hard on day 1, but your argument isn't wrong. I won't switch my vote from you, but I do agree with your reasoning.
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pinecone
dumb cones who throw scumgames
Posts: 4,383
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Post by pinecone on Sept 11, 2016 17:16:07 GMT -8
I think that means that optimal town strategy is to lynch a random person - have everyone vote for themselves and then kill anyone who changes their vote on day 2? There are less mafia than town. This strategy means that there is high chance that a town days, at night mafia kills a town. And now town is just down two. This is a winning line.
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pinecone
dumb cones who throw scumgames
Posts: 4,383
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Post by pinecone on Sept 11, 2016 17:21:23 GMT -8
is not*. man i wish you could edit your posts
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Post by str1fe on Sept 11, 2016 17:21:39 GMT -8
If you don't lynch on day 1, executioner will just lynch his target and walk out, so you lose 1 townsperson. If you lynch randomly, you get mafia 1/3 of the time and town 2/3, so your EV is -1/3 townsperson, which is a lot better than the other result.
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Post by zabimaru1000 on Sept 11, 2016 17:23:03 GMT -8
Mafia greatly benefit from false lynching or no lynching. Either way they get away with a nightkill. Optimal town play has to lynch mafia day 1 and get it right.
Habi makes a point about laudandus constantly swapping votes despite some being meme votes. I actually don't think highly of everyone starting out with meme votes (even though I started one out last game out of pure anger and salt) and I think we should be wary of these people. It's like ragging on inactives except it's way worse imo. Thank you Habi for recording the vote sequence and reasons:
I'm looking at you laudandus, Appel, and str1fe. Pawn I can kind of understand because he was responding to the meme vote.
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pinecone
dumb cones who throw scumgames
Posts: 4,383
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Post by pinecone on Sept 11, 2016 17:25:42 GMT -8
If you don't lynch on day 1, executioner will just lynch his target and walk out, so you lose 1 townsperson. If you lynch randomly, you get mafia 1/3 of the time and town 2/3, so your EV is -1/3 townsperson, which is a lot better than the other result. Imo exec wouldn't play like that, but it doesn't really matter. This plan would never happen 1) people don't want to vote for themselves. 2) it has a 2/3 chance two town die 3) it's not fun
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Post by str1fe on Sept 11, 2016 17:27:38 GMT -8
"Imo exec wouldn't play like that"
doesn't he win if he lynches his target? i'm not sure exactly how it works, but that's the impression i got.
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pinecone
dumb cones who throw scumgames
Posts: 4,383
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Post by pinecone on Sept 11, 2016 17:30:32 GMT -8
"Imo exec wouldn't play like that" doesn't he win if he lynches his target? i'm not sure exactly how it works, but that's the impression i got. He wouldn't want to be counter sniped. If he tries to switch votes last minute there is no guarantee that somebody else switches votes. This is just a very volatile way to play.
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Post by laudandus on Sept 11, 2016 17:31:15 GMT -8
I think that means that optimal town strategy is to lynch a random person - have everyone vote for themselves and then kill anyone who changes their vote on day 2? In this scenario it's also optimal for a townie to take a vote off of themselves and put it on someone else I think everyone should place votes on day 1. I think not placing your vote is dumb, and I think if at any point a majority is voting for one person it's probably reasonable to hammer that person. Can everyone get avatars? There are too many gray heads. I'll prod all those people drbiscuitsI think there should be sufficient votes going around that my level of vote swapping at the beginning isn't unusual. There's no reason not to plop your vote down on whoever you'd most want lynched at any given time. If you're a townie, having your train of thought be clear and visible is unlikely to implicate you, and you want there to be more information going around.
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Post by str1fe on Sept 11, 2016 17:48:07 GMT -8
I think that means that optimal town strategy is to lynch a random person - have everyone vote for themselves and then kill anyone who changes their vote on day 2? In this scenario it's also optimal for a townie to take a vote off of themselves and put it on someone else this is wrong and i'm pretty sure you know that. it's not true in terms of self-preservation, since the plan will be to lynch that person the next day. the drawback is that if a townie has information today, they won't get to use it, but i don't think any of the known town roles have information today anyway, but you didn't say that. i think you're mafia, but i'm not sure. i'm still going with the strategy for today. i accuse myself.
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pinecone
dumb cones who throw scumgames
Posts: 4,383
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Post by pinecone on Sept 11, 2016 17:48:59 GMT -8
In this scenario it's also optimal for a townie to take a vote off of themselves and put it on someone else this is wrong and i'm pretty sure you know that. it's not true in terms of self-preservation, since the plan will be to lynch that person the next day. the drawback is that if a townie has information today, they won't get to use it, but i don't think any of the known town roles have information today anyway, but you didn't say that. i think you're mafia, but i'm not sure. i'm still going with the strategy for today. i accuse myself. If you aren't going to take this seriously than I am definitely ok with lynching you. Voting for yourself literally ruins the game.
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Post by MortFeld on Sept 11, 2016 17:50:11 GMT -8
Unaccuse: Acute
Idols are weird but you're not inactive so we'll call it even. Positively brilliant analysis, I hadn't considered this. I think that means that optimal town strategy is to lynch a random person - have everyone vote for themselves and then kill anyone who changes their vote on day 2? You want to enforce a random lynch? That's not optimal town strat. We don't just want someone to die, we want to kill someone pseudo-randomly, learn their alignment, and see who votes for them, who avoids doing so, who verbally suspects them but doesn't vote, etc. An actual random lynch gives us nothing but a dead guy. I HATE that there's an exe. I really, really hope the role interacts with the game more than having a win con of 'lynch X townie' because this is forum mafia, the joy is in actually playing. Exe makes sense on ToS where there are rapid-fire games and gold prizes. Not to question Biscuits, just my feelings on it. I said something similar last game too. That being said, while I think it is very valuable to think about whether someone pushing for a lynch might be exe, constructing a situation suboptimal for town just to root out exe is ludicrous. I'd rather focus on achieving town's win condition rather than preventing exe's, since the two should not be mutually exclusive. drbiscuits can you confirm? I think there should be sufficient votes going around that my level of vote swapping at the beginning isn't unusual. There's no reason not to plop your vote down on whoever you'd most want lynched at any given time. If you're a townie, having your train of thought be clear and visible is unlikely to implicate you, and you want there to be more information going around. 1. It's objectively unusual since you have the most accusation switches by 2. 2. Are you saying that you've had more than a neutral feeling about lynching each of the people you've accused? Because that's certainly not always my rationale for accusing. I had read your accusations as more of just conversation starters, which I liked. 3. Trying to look innocent for fear of getting mislynched (re: "If you're a townie, having your train of thought be clear and visible is unlikely to implicate you") is a weird way to play as town.
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Post by laudandus on Sept 11, 2016 17:55:37 GMT -8
pinecone wut lmao I think he's proposed a pretty reasonable strategy from a motivational standpoint. You lookin' for someone to try to mislynch bro? ?? str1fe You misinterpreted me, I think. I meant optimal outside of the getting lynched the next day factor, because I thought you were using switching off of yourself as a measurement for having non-town motivation. I see what you mean, but this strategy only works if everyone agrees with it and even then it's worse than making reads. Reads leave a trail, and once we have more information we can look back at how people voted on day 1 to figure out who mafia is. Even if this is more likely to hit a mafia than non-random (I don't think it is) the information denial is a big cost.
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Post by MortFeld on Sept 11, 2016 17:55:38 GMT -8
Want to share a quick anecdote from my very short-lived mafiascum game: We had a player accuse himself early. When questioned, he said he did it to start discussion. Which was reasonable, except for the next day he was extremely cagey and attracted everyone's suspicion. He was the presumptive lynch target with not much opposition, so we asked him to claim. If he claimed town, we were all probably going to believe him but he claimed cop and based on the setup we had and someone else's counterclaim, he could not be cop. So we lynched him and he was vanilla town. I urge str1fe to reconsider your self-vote for the reason I posted. It is not optimal macro town strat. In terms of micro, it is even worse - assuming you're town, not only do you avoid putting pressure on potential scum, you also vote for a guaranteed mislynch. For these reasons, a self-vote is actually a good scum strat, since you avoid incriminating yourself by your voting. Assuming town doesn't immediately get on your ass about it. I'll hold off voting him in hopes he changes his vote.
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Post by laudandus on Sept 11, 2016 18:01:50 GMT -8
Positively brilliant analysis, I hadn't considered this. 1. It's objectively unusual since you have the most accusation switches by 2. 2. Are you saying that you've had more than a neutral feeling about lynching each of the people you've accused? Because that's certainly not always my rationale for accusing. I had read your accusations as more of just conversation starters, which I liked. 3. Trying to look innocent for fear of getting mislynched (re: "If you're a townie, having your train of thought be clear and visible is unlikely to implicate you") is a weird way to play as town. tckf seemed potentially mafia to me. I don't want to put all of my feelings on this into words because if I express to him why I feel he might be mafia he can stop doing those things and then it becomes really WIFOM. 1. I was saying it shouldn't be unusual as in I think more people should be making accusations and I don't think our community should view moving your vote around as suspiciously as it does. 2. Yeah it's been pretty neutral mostly 3. This isn't trying to look innocent. I'm saying the opposite : townies should try to find scum in the way they think is most likely to uncover scum, and it is likely that due to their process being actually town-motivated they will probably appear town without having to put effort into it. I think that our meta is that everyone tries really hard to appear town and that this is very harmful because everyone is aiming at the same goal so we can never find mafia unless clayton tells llamas who the mafia are.
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Post by spark676 on Sept 11, 2016 18:02:20 GMT -8
hello what do
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Post by acute on Sept 11, 2016 18:02:39 GMT -8
Well also we have several new players it seems, but we're analyzing the situation under ideal conditions, where everyone plays perfectly, or at least plays to their best extent with proper knowledge on how to play. Considering people are new, those people could be making actions they think are smart but may be less than ideal. And if an experienced player takes advantage of that knowledge, they could make actions that would usually be considered stupid, but they do it knowing they'll remain under the radar of a newer player. Hmm..
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Post by laudandus on Sept 11, 2016 18:04:43 GMT -8
I agree with acute . Knowing str1fe I find it extremely unlikely that he proposed a strategy like this because he wanted to hide information and not because he thought it was genuinely optimal.
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Post by zabimaru1000 on Sept 11, 2016 18:06:07 GMT -8
I accuse tckf.
I have changed by avatar to the best Re: Zero girl (Kappa) by the request of laudandus.
str1fe, why the fuck are you voting for yourself? If you're town there's no reason not to.
I don't like the fact that haus voted for someone with an easy reason of "this man meme-voted, he must go" and disappear off the face of the earth. Or tckf barely posting anything of substance. I'm honestly fine with lynching either one of them.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2016 18:11:29 GMT -8
This setup has roughly half the players being new to forum mafia layout. However, the other half has experience. And while Laudandus is saying that he is appearing genuine by switching votes (the way he thinks is optimal), generally in this game the act of flip-flopping is seen as scummy.
However since this is day 1 (both irl and in game time), I will take his actions with a bit of a grain of salt, and what he says about the meta does seem accurate. But I am not going to write this off because the kernel of logic still states it to be scummy. Every action has tells.
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Post by MortFeld on Sept 11, 2016 18:15:38 GMT -8
Well also we have several new players it seems, but we're analyzing the situation under ideal conditions, where everyone plays perfectly, or at least plays to their best extent with proper knowledge on how to play. Considering people are new, those people could be making actions they think are smart but may be less than ideal. And if an experienced player takes advantage of that knowledge, they could make actions that would usually be considered stupid, but they do it knowing they'll remain under the radar of a newer player. Hmm.. The opposite is analyzing from suboptimal positions which is impossible. When something looks suboptimal it tends to be scumplay - of course, when someone says something like "That self-vote looks like scumplay" they're not condemning the person who self-voted. I guess I just wonder what analyzing actions under suboptimal conditions would even look like, because if that's not what you mean, you actually mean it's better to give new people a free pass. 1. I was saying it shouldn't be unusual as in I think more people should be making accusations and I don't think our community should view moving your vote around as suspiciously as it does. 2. Yeah it's been pretty neutral mostly 3. This isn't trying to look innocent. I'm saying the opposite : townies should try to find scum in the way they think is most likely to uncover scum, and it is likely that due to their process being actually town-motivated they will probably appear town without having to put effort into it. I think that our meta is that everyone tries really hard to appear town and that this is very harmful because everyone is aiming at the same goal so we can never find mafia unless clayton tells llamas who the mafia are. 1. Cool, I agree. As I said, I didn't read much into it. 2. Ok. 3. Ok! I very much agree. That could be part of why we seem so risk-averse as a group. In fact, my own reaction to the self vote is pretty risk-averse. More on risk-aversion - when town doesn't even like other townies taking risks it's so easy for scum to point to aggressiveness, pushiness, reading too far into certain things, as scummy to push a mislynch, when these are actually town-favored characteristics. I say this knowing full well how strong this is from when I used it as scum in game 3. Side note: it's very annoying to quote Laudandus' posts because for some reason they're full of null characters that I have to delete. Maybe it's a mobile thing. Still frustrating working with people who have posted when spideyday and gshark54 haven't at all.
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Post by zabimaru1000 on Sept 11, 2016 18:17:45 GMT -8
lesllamas pls lend us your unique ability of using coolkid to tell us who's mafia.
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Post by laudandus on Sept 11, 2016 18:17:50 GMT -8
Big fan of the 'best re:zero girl' avatar idea.
tfw you put a vote on Appel early in the game and he responded in the scummiest possible way and this didn't make you think he was necessarily scum and not just being really really Appel
I unaccuse Gravy. I accuse tckf.
You've clearly been reading the thread because you think I'm cool and mysterious; what do you think about who might be mafia?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2016 18:17:51 GMT -8
As for Str1fe, basically what everyone else is saying man. If you are town, there is no reason to vote for yourself. The only time to do that is to either suicide to activate your ability (shoutouts to lupe fiasco) or to halt anything to your own demise (shoutouts to me).
Although your posts do seem like you are acting for town. Even if the reasoning is flawed, it does seem like you are speaking with good intentions. Please do not waste your vote.
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